Dynamics of the Systemic Importance of Banks in the Market of the Republic of Serbia: Analysis of Cluster Migration and Structural Adjustment

Abstract: The subject of this work is the analysis of the structural transformation and strategic positioning of banks in the Republic of Serbia in the period from 2017 to 2024. The main goal of the research is a scientific analysis of the dynamics of the banking sector using the methodology of strategic groups, in order to identify key migrations between market quadrants and assess the degree of structural adjustment of the sector to macroeconomic shocks. The methodology includes descriptive statistics, comparative analysis and visualization on a two-dimensional matrix, with a focus on a sample of 11 banks. The results of the research confirm that the intensive consolidation process led to a significant consolidation of the market, whereby the average market share in the total assets of the leading banks increased from 5.49% to 8.38%. The analysis shows a high degree of resilience of the sector, which retained the primary function of lending to the economy and the population with a share of loans above 60%. It was found that the decline in profitability (ROA) and capital base (E/A) during the crisis year 2020 was of a temporary nature, which was followed by a stabilization of performance on a healthy basis.