Business Cycle Synchronization and Monetary Policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Original scientific paper
Author: Prof. Dragan Jović
doi: 10.5937/bankarstvo2102008J
Keywords: business cycle; business cycle synchronization; monetary policy; currency board; banking; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Hodrick-Prescott filter; gap analysis
JEL: E32, E58, G28

Summary: By adopting the currency board at the end of the last century, and by pegging its exchange rate to the euro, a quarter of a century ago, Bosnia and Herzegovina surrendered a great part of its monetary policy in the hand of European Central Bank in the hope that the synchronization of the business cycle will make foreign monetary policy completely suitable for Bosnia and Herzegovina. At the same time during these two decades, the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been developing and using reserve requirement and remuneration as discretionary instruments of monetary policy. The research shows that the domestic business cycle and the foreign one are relatively weakly synchronized compared to other countries’ degree of synchronization, and by this findings current discretionary monetary policy and its further development and enrichment with new instruments is fully justified. Bosnia and Herzegovina must continue with developing its own discretionary monetary policy without relying on foreign monetary policy.

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